The top 6 teams have a nerve-wracking path to the CFP — minus Georgia

While most outcomes are pretty straightforward, LSU beating the Bulldogs in the SEC title game would incite riots in more places than Baton Rouge

PublishedNovember 23, 2022

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There are many reasons to be envious of fans with teams in contention for the College Football Playoff, but the most relevant to this weekend is the mental and physical energy expended to get to the end of the regular season tightrope will be enough to work off those Turkey Day calories. While the rest of us may watch the holiday weekend football slate between naps and plates of leftovers, no one will be sleeping in living rooms from Fort Worth to Columbus, Ann Arbor to Athens, Los Angeles, and Baton Rouge.

Drinks will be spilled, windows will be fogged, remotes will be thrown, and I couldn’t be more jealous. We know a CFP berth is on the wish list of the top six teams, so let’s take a look at what they’ll have to do, or in some cases, need to have happen to get there.

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No. 6 USC Trojans: Win out plus an LSU loss

I recently wrote about USC checking all the boxes valued by the panel, and the case was made even stronger after Caleb Williams accounted for 503 yards during a win over UCLA, almost out-gaining the Bruins (513 yards) by himself. All the Trojans have to do is win two more games to become the third Pac-12 team to make the playoff because a one-loss non-conference champion won’t get in over the SC brand.

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USC (cont’d)

The issue is getting those two Ws is easier said than executed. This week, the Trojans have a Notre Dame team that’s been somewhat overlooked after admirably bouncing back from an 0-2 start. The Golden Domers are 8-3 and have won five straight, including dismantling Clemson. Lincoln Riley’s team is at home Saturday, but will have either Oregon, Utah, or Washington at a neutral site for the Pac-12 title game. Their only loss on the season is to the Utes, and they haven’t played the Ducks or Huskies.

If I’m an SC fan, I’m nervous about not hopping LSU in the standings after Saturday though.

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No. 5 LSU Tigers: Win out

In order for Brian Kelly to take his new team to the playoff, all they have to do is beat Texas A&M and Georgia. A win over the Dawgs this year is more than enough to convince me of a team’s worthiness for a playoff spot, and I think it’ll be enough for the panel, as well.

The casual fan is torn equally between how much LSU deserves this and if Kelly should be rewarded for anything ever. It seems as if playing a competitive non-conference opponent matters, and not whether you win.

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LSU (cont’d)

There’s kind of a double standard because only SEC teams appear to be eligible to buy back into the tournament after getting knocked out. The Bayou Bengals are far and away a better team now than they were against a meh Florida State squad in Week 1, yet so are a lot of programs. Couple the FSU game with a beatdown by Tennessee at home, mix in myriad other close games, and there’s no way the Tigers should be ahead of USC in the standings or two wins away from the playoff.

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No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs: Win out

Of the unbeaten teams, Sonny Dykes’ crew has the easiest route to a CFP bid, with only Iowa State and most likely Kansas State in their path. It feels like TCU’s perfect season sees its mortality in the mirror every week only to defiantly scrounge up enough heart and moxie to prevail. Funny enough, “heart” and “moxie” are the words most used to describe starting quarterback Max Duggan (pictured).

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TCU (cont’d)

Perhaps TCU knows anything but a perfect season won’t stamp their ticket, and it’s only sharpened the team’s focus. Or… they’ve been unconscious since the Oklahoma game in Week 4, and refuse to be roused from this dream state like the old guys in the Inception den. That said, I think we’d all have to be asleep for that scenario to be true, which reminds me: I need to go check to see if my top is still spinning.

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No. 3 Michigan Wolverines: Win out/close loss at Ohio State and LSU loss/USC or TCU loss

I think it’s going to take a lot for a one-loss Big Ten team to make the CFP if TCU and USC win out. The best bullet point on the résumé between Ohio State and Michigan right now is I guess the Penn State Ws, or maybe the Buckeyes’ victory over Notre Dame. The argument can’t just be “Look, we beat the shit out of bad teams most of the time, and played (Ohio State or Michigan) close.”

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Michigan (cont’d)

I get that Illinois was a letdown game, but the reason other contenders are afforded an ugly win is due to all of the good ones. We’re not talking about one-loss Clemson in the CFB right now because they looked like James Franklin against a ranked team in South Bend and had multiple scares before that. Michigan trailing the Fighting Illini at home for most of the fourth quarter and having to kick their way to a 19-17 win was a glaring scare.

We know the committee factors in injuries, too, and Blake Corum (above) is Michigan’s offense. With the star running back’s status still unknown, Jim Harbaugh is going to be hard-pressed to get a win let alone a convincing enough loss to sway the power brokers.

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No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes: Win out/Close loss to Michigan with an LSU loss/USC or TCU loss

With the exception of the Indiana game — Ohio State owns the Hoosiers — the past month hasn’t been exactly overwhelming dominance out of the Buckeyes. The final scores of the Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland games were in the double digits, yes, but OSU needed a big fourth quarter to pull away from the Nittany Lions, and weren’t super effective on the ground playing left-handed in the wind against the 1-10 Cats, and got a scoop-and-score in the waning seconds of a game where the Terps had the ball down six with ample time to pull off a miracle.

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Ohio State (cont’d)

Thank god former Buckeye Marcus Freeman righted the ship, or that Notre Dame win would look way worse. (Even though I still don’t think it was impressive. Freeman’s Irish were a mess early in the season. For Touchdown Jesus’ sake, they lost to Stanford.)

And while I’m here, C.J. Stroud (above r.) still hasn’t had a Heisman moment like Caleb Williams against UCLA, or Hendon Hooker (RIP) against Alabama. Saturday is a prime opportunity to have one, because it sure as shit isn’t in the B1G title game against Iowa or Purdue.

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No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs: Win out/Close loss to LSU in SEC title game

I don’t see a scenario where Kirby Smart’s team misses the playoff. Unless LSU absolutely stomps them, even a competitive showing against the Tigers will suffice.

Dropping UGA from No. 1 to No. 5 won’t happen, and that’s why every one-loss team should be praying Georgia holds serve if the other teams do as well. The doomsday scenario for every team with one loss in an LSU win. I believe the committee will give a one-loss defending champion a shot at redemption, and extremities will be lopped off before an SEC winner gets left out of the CFP, which means USC and the loser in Columbus on Saturday are SOL.

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Georgia (cont’d)

I legit think the committee would face some sort of legal recourse from a university, maybe even conference, or a congressional investigation headed up by a Michigan or Ohio politician, if a two-loss LSU skipped the line. And, honestly, I hope it happens for the comedy alone.

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